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| A10 BY THE NUMBERS Recent Articles 02/11/10: 2/11 A10 Postseason Odds Report 01/09/10: 1/9 A10 Postseason Odds Report 01/05/09: The Effect of the Unbalanced Schedule on the 2010 A10 Conference Season 12/30/09: A10 Postseason Odds Report 12/23/09: The Effect of Melquan Bolding's Absence on Duquesne 12/22/09: A10 Postseason Odds Report 12/18/09: A10 Postseason Odds Report 12/11/09: Quantifying the Rebounding Problems of St. Joe's Basketball Links NIT-ology Ken Pomeroy Mid-Majority Yoco Hoops Bracket Board College Hoops Net A10 Forum Storming the Floor College Chalktalk Villanova by the Numbers Valley Ledger March Madness All Season Contact mikebscullin@gmail.com | 1/9 A10 Postseason Odds Report January 9, 2009 by Mike Scullin A little bit of a change in the way I calculate the odds starting with this edition. Instead of assuming a team has a 75% chance of receiving an NCAA bid if they reach exactly their target record, I now have it broken down by 3 confidence levels: 60%, 75%, and 90%. I think this will provide a little more accuracy; for instance, Richmond and URI are clearly better bets to make it at 11-5 than Dayton is at 10-6, and the odds now reflect that. I'm leaving the NIT confidence level alone at 75% for all teams since that tournament's selection process is a bit more objective and straightforward. TR = target record for NCAA or NIT at large bid TRPI = target RPI rank for NCAA or NIT at large bid [C] = confidence level of at-large bid at target finish NCAA%/NIT%/PstSn% = percent chance of reaching the NCAA tournament, NIT tournament, and one or the other, respectively, as an at large bid. PROJECTION THROUGH GAMES OF JANUARY 8, 2010 Explanation of how odds are calculated
Expected A10 NCAA bids: 3.49 (+0.41) / Expected A10 NIT bids: 2.17 (-0.89) NCAA BID BREAKDOWN: 1% chance of 1 bid 9% chance of 2 bids 46% chance of 3 bids 30% chance of 4 bids 14% chance of 5 bids Why are Xavier's odds so high? A couple of reasons. For one, the schedule strength analysis in my last article convinced me that if Xavier finishes 12-4, they will probably amass a nice handful of high quality wins in the conference along the way. I bumped their target record down by a win to account for this fact (previously their target was 12-4 with an extra win over Florida), and their stock rose accordingly. Second, the Sagarin predictor and Kenpom formulas may love Xavier (and arguably Temple) a little too much right now. They both have Xavier projected for 13 conference wins right now in addition to a 50/50 shot for another big win @ Florida -- certainly doable for a very talented team, but 12 A10 wins would be a much more realistic projection. Remember that the game predictions are based on this data, so as a result the odds model loves Xavier to get to 20 wins. Huge jump for conference All of the at large contenders have either been taking care of business or losing close games to good teams on the road, and as a result all of their NCAA chances have risen from the last report. The A10 adds 0.41 expected NCAA at large bids, and the chance of 5 bids skyrockets this week to 14%. Of course, that final number should be taken with a grain of salt -- it assumes the teams' quests are independent events, which they are not. Previous editions: 12/18 / 12/22 / 12/30 |