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| A10 BY THE NUMBERS Recent Articles 02/11/10: 2/11 A10 Postseason Odds Report 01/09/10: 1/9 A10 Postseason Odds Report 01/05/09: The Effect of the Unbalanced Schedule on the 2010 A10 Conference Season 12/30/09: A10 Postseason Odds Report 12/23/09: The Effect of Melquan Bolding's Absence on Duquesne 12/22/09: A10 Postseason Odds Report 12/18/09: A10 Postseason Odds Report 12/11/09: Quantifying the Rebounding Problems of St. Joe's Basketball Links NIT-ology Ken Pomeroy Mid-Majority Yoco Hoops Bracket Board College Hoops Net A10 Forum Storming the Floor College Chalktalk Villanova by the Numbers Valley Ledger March Madness All Season Contact mikebscullin@gmail.com | 2/11 A10 Postseason Odds Report February 11, 2010 by Mike Scullin As you can see, the bottom 7 teams have been lopped off of the report because the formula gives all of them a 0% chance of making the NCAA or NIT. Barring an unexpected run by one of those seven to bring themselves back into contention, this will remain a 7 team report (at least until St. Louis fades out of NIT contention). Clearly, there are two tiers of at large contenders in the A10 right now: Temple, Xavier and Richmond all come in at above 80% due to being comfortably projected to win 12 games in conference and having nice sets of quality wins. Dayton, Rhode Island, and Charlotte are in a dogfight that, if I had to guess, will result in 2 of 3 of those teams ending up with bids. Atlantic City is going to be a lot of fun this year... TR = target record for NCAA or NIT at large bid TRPI = target RPI rank for NCAA or NIT at large bid [C] = confidence level of at-large bid at target finish NCAA%/NIT%/PstSn% = percent chance of reaching the NCAA tournament, NIT tournament, and one or the other, respectively, as an at large bid. PROJECTION THROUGH GAMES OF JANUARY 8, 2010 Explanation of how odds are calculated
Expected A10 NCAA bids: 4.54 / Expected A10 NIT bids: 1.50 16.6% chance of 6 bids Previous editions: 12/18 / 12/22 / 12/30 / 1/9 |