BY THE NUMBERS statistical analysis of atlantic 10 conference basketball [NITOLOGY.COM/A10]

A10 BY THE NUMBERS Recent Articles 02/11/10: 2/11 A10 Postseason Odds Report 01/09/10: 1/9 A10 Postseason Odds Report 01/05/09: The Effect of the Unbalanced Schedule on the 2010 A10 Conference Season 12/30/09: A10 Postseason Odds Report 12/23/09: The Effect of Melquan Bolding's Absence on Duquesne 12/22/09: A10 Postseason Odds Report 12/18/09: A10 Postseason Odds Report 12/11/09: Quantifying the Rebounding Problems of St. Joe's Basketball Links NIT-ology Ken Pomeroy Mid-Majority Yoco Hoops Bracket Board College Hoops Net A10 Forum Storming the Floor College Chalktalk Villanova by the Numbers Valley Ledger March Madness All Season Contact mikebscullin@gmail.com

12/22 A10 Postseason Odds Report December 22, 2009 by Mike Scullin Another tremendous weekend for the conference results in skyrocketing NCAA odds for a couple of the most likely at large contenders. The numbers currently say that the A10 has a 97% probability of getting 3 or more bids, 37% for 4 or more, and 11% for the elusive 5. It's important to note that these at large chances are being looked at as independent events in this simulation while they probably aren't truly so -- it is possible that even with biases aside, the committee will find it difficult to allow a fifth team in. Still, these results are extremely encouraging. TR = target record for NCAA or NIT at large bid TRPI = target RPI rank for NCAA or NIT at large bid NCAA%/NIT%/PstSn% = percent chance of reaching the NCAA tournament, NIT tournament, and one or the other, respectively, as an at large bid. PROJECTION THROUGH GAMES OF DECEMBER 21, 2009 Explanation of how odds are calculated Team Temple Xavier Richmond Dayton Rhode Island Charlotte Geo Wash. St. Bona La Salle St. Louis Duquesne St. Joe's Umass Fordham NCAA TR /Conf 22-9/10-6 20-10/11-5 21-10/10-6 20-10/10-6 22-7/11-5 22-8/12-4 22-7/13-3 20-8/14-2 22-8/13-3 22-7/13-3 20-9/12-4 20-10/14-2 19-10/13-3 21-7/16-0 NCAA TRPI 43 41 34 50 23 37 50 51 43 41 43 40 40 40 NCAA % 90.3% 71.1% 62.4% 62.2% 44.4% 9.1% 4.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% - - - - NIT TR /Conf 19-12/7-9 17-13/8-8 18-13/7-9 18-12/8-8 18-11/7-9 19-11/9-7 20-9/11-5 18-10/12-4 19-11/10-6 19-10/10-6 18-11/10-6 17-13/10-6 17-12/11-5 18-10/16-0 NIT TRPI 74 77 69 73 64 70 71 76 76 76 72 78 71 70 NIT % 9.5% 27.0% 34.3% 28.3% 52.7% 45.7% 20.7% 12.2% 7.1% 5.5% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% - PstSn% 99.8% 98.1% 96.7% 90.5% 97.1% 54.8% 24.7% 13.5% 7.2% 5.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% - Expected A10 NCAA bids: 3.45 (+0.33) / Expected A10 NIT bids: 2.45 (-0.28) NCAA BID BREAKDOWN: 3% chance of 2 bids 60% chance of 3 bids 26% chance of 4 bids 11% chance of 5 bids Big Movers Richmond +33.3% (NCAA): Richmond's semi-road win against a well-regarded Florida team has a three-pronged effect on their NCAA odds, resulting in a huge jump: it's good enough to qualify for "signature win" status that gives them more RPI leeway, it drastically improves their expected RPI, and it makes the predictive models like them even more. Temple +15.3% (NCAA): The Owls have clearly been the class of the A10 to date. Another quality road win against Seton Hall cements them as a very good bet to be dancing come March. Rhode Island -14.0% (NCAA): They didn't really do anything to deserve this (decent win over Fairfield at home). Lack of signature wins, and their A10 schedule looking a lot tougher sets them back a bit. An 11-5 A10 finish is essential, and it will be difficult. Previous editions: 12/18