BY THE NUMBERS statistical analysis of atlantic 10 conference basketball [NITOLOGY.COM/A10]

A10 BY THE NUMBERS Recent Articles 02/11/10: 2/11 A10 Postseason Odds Report 01/09/10: 1/9 A10 Postseason Odds Report 01/05/09: The Effect of the Unbalanced Schedule on the 2010 A10 Conference Season 12/30/09: A10 Postseason Odds Report 12/23/09: The Effect of Melquan Bolding's Absence on Duquesne 12/22/09: A10 Postseason Odds Report 12/18/09: A10 Postseason Odds Report 12/11/09: Quantifying the Rebounding Problems of St. Joe's Basketball Links NIT-ology Ken Pomeroy Mid-Majority Yoco Hoops Bracket Board College Hoops Net A10 Forum Storming the Floor College Chalktalk Villanova by the Numbers Valley Ledger March Madness All Season Contact mikebscullin@gmail.com

12/30 A10 Postseason Odds Report December 30, 2009 by Mike Scullin A couple of adjustments in target records drive the numbers down a bit this week. The more I look at things, the more I think that Xavier will have to get to 12 wins (previous target was 11) in conference and Richmond will have to get to 11 (previous target was 10) to feel good about their at large chances. Both of these teams still have opportunities to post out of conference wins that would drive these target values back down to where I had them before, but I think the odds make a lot more sense this way. The conference continues to look good for 3 bids. Expect these numbers to get shaken up A LOT one way or another on the next postseason odds report -- pretty much all of the NCAA contenders have huge opportunities to improve their resumes in the next week or so. TR = target record for NCAA or NIT at large bid TRPI = target RPI rank for NCAA or NIT at large bid NCAA%/NIT%/PstSn% = percent chance of reaching the NCAA tournament, NIT tournament, and one or the other, respectively, as an at large bid. PROJECTION THROUGH GAMES OF DECEMBER 29, 2009 Explanation of how odds are calculated Team Temple Dayton Xavier Richmond Rhode Island Geo Wash. Charlotte St. Bona St. Louis Duquesne La Salle St. Joe's Umass Fordham NCAA TR /Conf 22-9/10-6 21-9/10-6 21-9/12-4 22-9/11-5 22-7/11-5 22-7/13-3 23-7/12-4 20-8/14-2 22-7/13-3 20-9/12-4 22-8/13-3 20-10/14-2 19-10/13-3 21-7/16-0 NCAA TRPI 41 38 30 25 26 51 29 48 39 42 40 40 40 40 NCAA % 95.8% 57.2% 56.9% 51.0% 39.3% 5.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% NIT TR /Conf 19-12/7-9 18-12/8-8 17-13/8-8 18-13/7-9 18-11/7-9 19-10/10-6 19-11/8-8 18-10/12-4 19-10/10-6 18-11/10-6 19-11/10-6 17-13/11-5 17-12/11-5 18-10/16-0 NIT TRPI 71 73 76 69 69 83 71 73 73 67 71 79 70 70 NIT % 4.1% 39.0% 42.2% 47.1% 57.5% 49.8% 40.7% 10.7% 8.0% 3.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% PstSn% 99.9% 96.2% 99.1% 98.1% 96.8% 55.1% 41.7% 11.6% 8.1% 3.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Expected A10 NCAA bids: 3.08 (-0.37) / Expected A10 NIT bids: 3.05 (+0.60) NCAA BID BREAKDOWN: 5% chance of 1 bids 11% chance of 2 bids 61% chance of 3 bids 17% chance of 4 bids 6% chance of 5 bids Big Movers George Washington +29.1% (NIT): The Colonials are finding ways to win close games, especially on the road. A 10-6 mark against a manageable conference slate should have them enjoying a postseason berth. Xavier -14.8% (NCAA): Not having done quite as much as they would have liked OOC thus far and having a relatively easy conference schedule is enough for me to think they may need to win 12 A10 games. They would love to have that Butler game back... Richmond -11.4% (NCAA): Florida losing to South Alabama following their defeat to Richmond was a really bad break for the Spiders. With one of their best wins looking like less of an accomplishment, the in-conference leeway drops a little bit for the time being. Previous editions: 12/18 / 12/22