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| A10 BY THE NUMBERS Recent Articles 02/11/10: 2/11 A10 Postseason Odds Report 01/09/10: 1/9 A10 Postseason Odds Report 01/05/09: The Effect of the Unbalanced Schedule on the 2010 A10 Conference Season 12/30/09: A10 Postseason Odds Report 12/23/09: The Effect of Melquan Bolding's Absence on Duquesne 12/22/09: A10 Postseason Odds Report 12/18/09: A10 Postseason Odds Report 12/11/09: Quantifying the Rebounding Problems of St. Joe's Basketball Links NIT-ology Ken Pomeroy Mid-Majority Yoco Hoops Bracket Board College Hoops Net A10 Forum Storming the Floor College Chalktalk Villanova by the Numbers Valley Ledger March Madness All Season Contact mikebscullin@gmail.com |
Postseason Odds Report Methodology I came up with target records/rpi's that a10 teams will need to get into the NCAA tournament or NIT, respectively, in my opinion. I based my estimates of target finishes on factors such as quality wins, strength of schedule, upcoming opportunities for quality wins, etc. Teams with things in their favor such as preseason rep and abnormally high quality wins in their back pockets will probably have more record/rpi leeway, while the opposite will be true for teams without these advantages. The target records/rpi's will certainly change from week to week based on things these teams and teams they may be competing against for bids happen to do. I then computed the chances of them reaching those target records based on win probability estimates - for now, I'm using sagarin's predictor (i like kenpom's ratings better, but this is simpler to use due to rpiforecast being integrated with it). Rpiforecast does a good job of breaking down the probability of a team finishing with each possible record and RPI rating -- you can find these projections on each of the team pages here. In order to be on the conservative side, I assumed that getting exactly to their target finish gives them only a 75% chance of being selected for the NCAA or NIT. Surpassing it means they are assumed to be in. Not an exact science by any means, but I'm confident I can provide a reasonable enough approximation of reality for this to be a worthwhile exercise. Note that my opinion only factors into the determination of target RPIs/records. The likelihood of reaching those targets is based only on the hard numbers to date. |